Titis Kusuma Lestari, Dwi Budi Santoso, Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra

KETERKAITAN GLOBALISASI DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN INKLUSIF PADA NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN BERPENDAPATAN MENENGAH

Introduction

Keterkaitan globalisasi dengan pertumbuhan inklusif pada negara-negara asean berpendapatan menengah. Kaji hubungan globalisasi (ekspor, investasi asing) dengan pertumbuhan inklusif di negara ASEAN berpendapatan menengah. Dampak positif hanya terdeteksi pada negara menengah ke atas.

Abstract

Abstrak Seiring perkembangan zaman, arus globalisasi dan gelombang teknologi menimbulkan kompetisi di pasar internasional. Untuk memenangkan kompetisi, beberapa negara mendorong kebijakan ke arah keterbukaan perdagangan dan menarik investasi asing sebanyak mungkin. Kebijakan tersebut akan mempercepat pembangunan dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun juga akan meningkatkan ketimpangan pendapatan. Dalam penelitian ini dikaji mengenai keterkaitan antara ekspor dan investasi asing, sebagai indikator globalisasi, dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan pendapatan, sebagai indikator pertumbuhan inklusif, di negara ASEAN berpendapatan menengah dengan menggunakan analisis regresi panel Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) selama periode 1995-2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, dalam konsep globalisasi, terdapat hubungan dua arah yang signifikan antara ekspor dan investasi asing. Di sisi lain, dalam konsep pertumbuhan inklusif, juga terdapat hubungan dua arah yang signifikan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan pendapatan. Sementara itu, ekspor dan investasi asing, sebagai indikator globalisasi, secara positif dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif hanya di negara ASEAN berpendapatan menengah ke atas. Oleh karena itu, direkomendasikan untuk mendorong kebijakan yang mempermudah ekspor, khususnya untuk produk yang bernilai tambah tinggi dan berdaya saing, sehingga kontribusi ekspor meningkat dan mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi negaranya. Kata Kunci: Globalisasi, Ekonomi Inklusif, Infrastruktur, 3SLS   Abstract In the middle of the last century, globalization and technological waves have created competition in the international market. To win the competition, some countries are pushing policies toward trade openness and attracting as much foreign investment as possible. These policies will accelerate development and increase economic growth, but will also increase income inequality. This study examines the relationship between exports and foreign investment, as an indicator of globalization, with economic growth and income inequality, as an indicator of inclusive growth, in middle-income ASEAN countries using a Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) panel regression analysis during the period 1995-2015. The empirical finding indicates that, in the concept of globalization, there is a significant two-way relationship between exports and foreign investment. On the other hand, in the concept of inclusive growth, there is also a significant two-way relationship between economic growth and income inequality. Meanwhile, exports and foreign investment, as indicators of globalization, can positively encourage inclusive economic growth only in upper middle-income ASEAN countries. Therefore, it is recommended to encourage policies that facilitate exports, especially for products that have high added value and competitive products, so that the contribution of exports increases and is able to increase the country's economic growth. Keywords: Globalization, Inclusive Economy, Infrastructure, 3SLS JEL Classification: F40, F62, I00, O18

Review

The study "KETERKAITAN GLOBALISASI DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN INKLUSIF PADA NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN BERPENDAPATAN MENENGAH" addresses a highly relevant and complex topic concerning the interplay between globalization and inclusive growth within the specific context of middle-income ASEAN countries. The authors aim to investigate how key indicators of globalization—exports and foreign direct investment (FDI)—relate to economic growth and income inequality, which are posited as components of inclusive growth. Utilizing panel regression analysis with a Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) approach for the period 1995-2015, the research seeks to unravel the nuanced dynamics of these critical macroeconomic variables in a region undergoing rapid economic transformation and increasing integration into the global economy. Methodologically, the choice of 3SLS panel regression is commendable, as it adeptly handles potential endogeneity issues that are common in such interconnected economic models, thereby enhancing the reliability of the findings. The study reveals several significant two-way relationships: between exports and FDI within the globalization framework, and between economic growth and income inequality within the inclusive growth framework. A particularly salient finding is that the positive impact of exports and foreign investment on inclusive economic growth is predominantly observed *only* in upper middle-income ASEAN countries. This distinction is crucial, suggesting that the benefits of globalization are not uniformly distributed across all middle-income economies within the region. Consequently, the authors recommend policies focused on facilitating high value-added and competitive exports to further boost economic growth, particularly in nations capable of leveraging such strategies. While the paper provides valuable insights, several aspects could be further elaborated or refined in the full manuscript. The conceptualization of "inclusive growth" solely through economic growth and income inequality, while practical for quantitative analysis, might benefit from a broader discussion incorporating other dimensions such as social inclusion, access to basic services, or employment generation, which are often integral to the inclusive growth agenda. Furthermore, the abstract's highlighted distinction between upper and lower middle-income ASEAN countries, though a key finding, warrants deeper exploration in the full paper regarding the underlying structural or institutional differences that account for this divergence in the impact of globalization. Understanding *why* only upper middle-income countries benefit inclusively would strengthen the policy recommendations. Finally, extending the analysis beyond 2015 to include more recent data would capture contemporary trends, crises, and policy shifts, potentially offering an even more current and robust perspective on these dynamic relationships.

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