Ferry Setiawan, Andriyani Hapsari, Imam Primagratha

Teori New Keynesian dan Relevansinya pada Makro Ekonomi Indonesia

Introduction

Teori new keynesian dan relevansinya pada makro ekonomi indonesia. Analisis relevansi Teori New Keynesian pada makroekonomi Indonesia. Pahami dampak kebijakan moneter, kekakuan harga/upah, ekspektasi inflasi untuk stabilitas ekonomi.

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis relevansi Teori New Keynesian dalam menjelaskan dinamika makroekonomi Indonesia, khususnya terkait peran kebijakan moneter, kekakuan harga dan upah, serta ekspektasi inflasi. Berangkat dari kritik terhadap model makro yang sepenuhnya berorientasi ke depan, studi ini menekankan pentingnya friksi pasar dan rigiditas nominal dalam memengaruhi transmisi kebijakan moneter. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis data sekunder periode 2014–2023 yang bersumber dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, dan Kementerian Keuangan. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan kerangka Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), Vector Autoregression (VAR), serta estimasi New Keynesian Phillips Curve dan Taylor Rule. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter Bank Indonesia memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi, meskipun transmisi kebijakan berlangsung tidak instan akibat kekakuan harga dan upah. Selain itu, ekspektasi inflasi terbukti berperan penting dalam menentukan dinamika inflasi aktual dan stabilitas makroekonomi. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa kerangka New Keynesian relevan untuk menjelaskan dinamika makroekonomi Indonesia, serta menekankan pentingnya kredibilitas kebijakan, komunikasi moneter (forward guidance), dan koordinasi kebijakan fiskal–moneter dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi.

Review

The paper "Teori New Keynesian dan Relevansinya pada Makro Ekonomi Indonesia" tackles a highly relevant and timely topic in macroeconomics, especially for understanding the unique dynamics of an emerging economy like Indonesia. The study's clear objective to analyze the applicability of the New Keynesian framework in explaining key macroeconomic phenomena—specifically monetary policy transmission, nominal rigidities, and inflation expectations—is well-articulated. By emphasizing market frictions and nominal rigidities, the research provides a valuable contribution to the ongoing discourse on macroeconomic modeling, moving beyond purely forward-looking paradigms to offer a more nuanced understanding of economic realities. The methodological approach employed in this study is robust and appropriately aligns with the research questions. Leveraging quantitative methods and secondary data from credible Indonesian institutions (Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, and Kementerian Keuangan) for the period 2014-2023 ensures a solid empirical foundation. The analytical toolkit, which includes Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and estimations of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and Taylor Rule, is comprehensive. This multi-faceted approach allows for a thorough investigation, combining structural modeling with reduced-form analysis to provide strong evidence for the relevance of the New Keynesian framework in the Indonesian context. The findings of this research offer significant insights. The study effectively demonstrates that Bank Indonesia's monetary policy has a substantial impact on inflation, though its transmission is not instantaneous due to the observed price and wage rigidities. Furthermore, the critical role of inflation expectations in determining actual inflation and overall macroeconomic stability is strongly affirmed, reinforcing core tenets of the New Keynesian theory. These results collectively validate the relevance of the New Keynesian framework for Indonesia's macroeconomic landscape. The policy implications are particularly salient, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy credibility, effective forward guidance, and robust fiscal-monetary coordination as crucial pillars for maintaining economic stability. This paper makes a valuable contribution by bridging advanced theoretical concepts with empirical evidence from a significant developing economy.

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