Marvin E. Prater, Adam Sparger, Pierre Bahizi, Daniel O’Neil

Rail Market Share of Grain and Oilseed Transportation

Introduction

Rail market share of grain and oilseed transportation. Analyze factors driving the decline in rail market share for grain and oilseed transportation since 2001. A state-level model highlights ethanol, biodiesel, & animal feeding.

Abstract

The share of the grain and oilseed harvest moved by rail has been declining since 1980, when the Federal Motor Carrier Act and the Staggers Rail Act were passed. Large structural changes associated with these acts affected the decline over the following two decades. Yet, even though the large structural changes had already taken place by 2000, the rail market share of grain and oilseed transportation has continued to decline. This paper develops a state-level statistical model for 21 of the top grain-producing states (which produce 86.6% of all grain and oilseeds) to investigate which major factors have been responsible for the decrease in the rail market share of grain and oilseed transportation since 2001. Twenty variables are tested in the model, and 10 are found to have a statistically significant impact on rail market share. Of these, three are most important in the decrease of rail market share: ethanol production, biodiesel production, and the concentration of animal feeding.

Review

The paper, "Rail Market Share of Grain and Oilseed Transportation," addresses a pertinent and ongoing trend in agricultural logistics: the sustained decline in the rail market share for grain and oilseed transportation. The abstract effectively frames the historical context, noting the initial significant structural shifts following the 1980 Federal Motor Carrier Act and Staggers Rail Act, which initiated the decline. Crucially, the paper highlights that this downward trend has persisted beyond 2000, even after the major legislative impacts had largely stabilized. This sets up a compelling research question focused on identifying the more recent drivers of this continued decline specifically from 2001 onwards, making it a timely and relevant investigation into evolving transportation dynamics. To investigate these contemporary drivers, the authors developed a robust state-level statistical model. The methodology is clearly defined, encompassing 21 of the top grain-producing states, which collectively account for an impressive 86.6% of all grain and oilseed production, thus ensuring broad geographic and output coverage. The model's thoroughness is indicated by the testing of twenty distinct variables, with ten ultimately demonstrating a statistically significant impact on rail market share. The abstract further zeroes in on the most impactful findings, identifying ethanol production, biodiesel production, and the concentration of animal feeding as the three primary factors contributing to the decrease in rail market share since 2001. These findings offer valuable insights for stakeholders across the transportation sector, agricultural industry, and policymakers concerned with rural development and infrastructure planning. The identification of factors like ethanol and biodiesel production directly links the decline in rail's market share to changes in agricultural commodity utilization and processing locations, suggesting a shift in supply chain geography. Similarly, the impact of concentrated animal feeding points to evolving domestic demand patterns and potentially shorter-haul transportation needs that favor other modes. The paper's strength lies in its clear articulation of a significant problem, its well-defined methodology, and the precise identification of key, contemporary drivers, providing a strong foundation for understanding and potentially addressing future trends in grain and oilseed logistics.

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