Ralita Widyawati, Erwan Aristyanto, Agus Sarwo Edi, Agung Bayu Murti

Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka, Tingkat Pendidikan, Upah Minimum terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2017-2024

Introduction

Pengaruh tingkat pengangguran terbuka, tingkat pendidikan, upah minimum terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di provinsi jawa timur tahun 2017-2024. Teliti dampak pengangguran, tingkat pendidikan, & upah minimum pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Timur 2017-2024. Pengangguran & upah minimum negatif, pendidikan positif secara signifikan.

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of open unemployment rate, education level, and minimum wage on economic growth in East Java Province during the period 2017-2024. The approach used is quantitative with an explanatory research design. The data were analyzed using panel data regression method that includes time dimension and geographical area, and supported by statistical tests to measure the significance of the influence of each variable. The results show that the open unemployment rate has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. In contrast, education level has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the minimum wage also has a significant but negative effect on economic growth, indicating that an increase in the minimum wage that is not proportional to productivity can hinder economic growth. Simultaneously, the three independent variables significantly affect economic growth in East Java Province. The R-squared value of 41.80% indicates that the variation in economic growth can be explained by these three variables, while the rest is influenced by other factors outside the model.

Review

This study investigates the influence of open unemployment rate, education level, and minimum wage on economic growth in East Java Province between 2017 and 2024. The research employs a quantitative approach with an explanatory design, utilizing panel data regression, which is an appropriate methodology for analyzing combined time-series and cross-sectional data, presumably across different sub-regions within East Java. The chosen variables are highly relevant to regional economic development, making the study timely and important for policymakers in understanding the drivers and impediments to growth in a significant Indonesian province. The abstract clearly outlines the objective and the analytical framework, setting a good foundation for the research. The findings presented are insightful and largely align with economic theory, though with one notable exception. As expected, open unemployment rate demonstrated a significant negative effect, underscoring the drag of underutilized human capital on economic output. Conversely, education level positively and significantly contributed to economic growth, reinforcing the critical role of human capital development. The finding that minimum wage has a significant but negative effect is particularly interesting, with the authors attributing this to a potential mismatch between wage increases and productivity gains. This suggests an important policy dilemma where minimum wage adjustments, if not carefully managed, could hinder rather than help regional economic expansion. The simultaneous significance of all three variables and an R-squared of 41.80% indicate a moderate explanatory power of the model, providing a useful but partial understanding of economic growth dynamics in the region. While the study offers valuable insights, there are areas for further development. The R-squared value, though acceptable, highlights that a substantial portion of economic growth variation remains unexplained, suggesting a need to incorporate additional factors such as investment, infrastructure development, inflation, or specific industry growth drivers in future analyses. Regarding the minimum wage finding, future research could delve deeper into empirically measuring productivity levels or exploring the heterogeneous effects of minimum wage across different sectors or firm sizes. Furthermore, while panel data regression is appropriate, specifying the chosen panel model (e.g., Fixed Effects, Random Effects, or Pooled OLS) and the rationale behind its selection would enhance methodological rigor in a full paper. Despite these points, the research provides a solid contribution to understanding the multifaceted nature of economic growth in East Java and offers pertinent implications for regional economic policy.

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