Syamsul Irham

KLASIFIKASI CEKUNGAN BERDASARKAN KUANTITATIF FAKTOR RESIKO GEOLOGI

Introduction

Klasifikasi cekungan berdasarkan kuantitatif faktor resiko geologi. Klasifikasi cekungan hidrokarbon berdasarkan analisis kuantitatif faktor resiko geologi untuk menarik investasi eksplorasi di Indonesia. Mengelompokkan resiko dari sangat tinggi hingga sangat rendah menggunakan petroleum system.

Abstract

Indonesia memerlukan usaha eksplorasi yang banyak untuk meningkatkan cadangan dan produksi nasional. Banyaknya eksplorasi memerlukan investasi yang besar. Investasi yang besar memerlukan usaha untuk menarik minat investor. Salah satu usaha menarik minat idnvestor adalah dengan memberikan data klasifikasi resiko geologi dari cekungan hidrokarbon. Tulisan ini memaparkan cara sederhana dalam mengelompokkan tingkat resiko geologi dari beberapa cekungan. Faktor pengelompokan didasarkan kuantitatif pada petroleum system: batuan induk, reservoir, tutupan, jebakan, migrasi, patahan, dan perlipatan. Sebagai sampel, telah dipilih beberapa cekungan yang bisa mewakili cekungan yang dikenal sebagai frontier, semi mature and mature. Berdasarkan kuantitative keberdadaan petroleum system tersebut, maka cekungan dikelompokkan menjadi beresiko sangat tinggi sampai beresioko sangat rendah.    Kata kunci : petroleum system, analisis kuantitatif, faktor resiko geologi, cekungan   Abstract  Indonesia requires a lot of exploration effort to increase national reserves and production. Lots of exploration requires a large investment. Large investments require effort to attract investors. One of the efforts to attract investors' interest is to provide geological risk classification data from hydrocarbon basins. This paper describes a simple way of classifying the geological risk levels of several basins. The grouping factors are based on the quatitative of petroleum system: source rock, reservoir, seal, trap, migration, fault, and fold. As a sample, several basins have been selected which can represent basins known as frontier, semi mature and mature. Based on the quantitative existence of the petroleum system, the basins are grouped into very high risk to very low risk. Keywords: petroleum system, quantitative analysis, geological risk factors, basins.

Review

This paper presents a timely and relevant methodology for classifying hydrocarbon basin risk in Indonesia, aiming to attract much-needed investment for exploration to boost national reserves and production. The core objective is to provide a simplified, quantitative framework for assessing geological risk, which is a critical piece of information for potential investors. By focusing on the fundamental elements of a petroleum system—source rock, reservoir, seal, trap, migration, fault, and fold—the authors propose a systematic approach to group basins into varying risk categories, from very high to very low. The abstract indicates a practical application of this classification for a range of basins, including frontier, semi-mature, and mature, suggesting a broad applicability across Indonesia's diverse geological landscape. A key strength of this work lies in its practical utility and direct address of an industry challenge. The use of a quantitative approach to petroleum system elements provides a structured method for risk assessment, moving beyond purely qualitative judgments. The selection of various basin maturity levels as samples (frontier, semi-mature, and mature) is commendable, as it demonstrates the potential versatility of the proposed classification scheme. This approach could significantly streamline preliminary exploration assessments and offer a clear, data-driven narrative to stakeholders, enabling more informed decision-making and potentially reducing the perceived barriers to investment in Indonesian hydrocarbon exploration. While the abstract outlines a compelling framework, further detail on the "simple way" of quantification would significantly enhance its impact. For instance, the abstract mentions "quantitative existence" of petroleum system elements; elaborating on *how* each factor (e.g., source rock quality, reservoir presence, trap effectiveness) is quantified, weighted, and ultimately integrated into a consolidated risk score is crucial. Transparency on the specific metrics used and the methodology for assigning basins to "very high" to "very low" risk categories would strengthen the paper's scientific rigor. Additionally, a brief discussion on how this "simple way" compares to more complex, probabilistic risk assessment methods—and its specific advantages or limitations—would provide valuable context for readers and potential users of this classification system.

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