Adinda Safira Santoso Ayuningrum, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa Sari, Nur Faqih Ihsan, Nasrudin -

Forecasting the Number of International Tourists Coming to Bali in 2025 Using SARIMAX and Google Trends Data

Introduction

Forecasting the number of international tourists coming to bali in 2025 using sarimax and google trends data. Forecast international tourist arrivals in Bali for 2025 using SARIMAX and Google Trends data. Predict peak tourism in August 2025 at 641,553, aiding strategic planning.

Abstract

Bali is a tourist destination that is in demand by foreign tourists, which continues to increase every year, so the government and local communities need strategies or policies that can be taken so that this becomes an advantage. There is a gap in the data available by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) as the data provider, so Google Trends is used to fill the gap. Tourist projections rely heavily on historical data sourced from conventional statistical reports, which, although they have a high level of accuracy, are often accompanied by significant time lags and are less responsive to dynamic changes in tourist behavior. This research aims to provide more accurate and responsive predictions by considering exogenous variables in the form of GTI with the keywords "Bali", "Bali Hotel", "Bali `Flight", and "Bali Destination". The best model selected was SARIMAX(2,0,0)(2,1,0)12, with RMSE and sMAPE of 5.994 and 0.845. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali is estimated to reach its peak in August 2025 at 641,553 people.

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