Erika Maulita, M Hendri Yan Nyale

Pengaruh Probabilitas Financial Distress, Ukuran Perusahaan, Likuiditas, Arus Kas Operasi, dan Laba Akuntansi terhadap Pengembalian Saham

Introduction

Pengaruh probabilitas financial distress, ukuran perusahaan, likuiditas, arus kas operasi, dan laba akuntansi terhadap pengembalian saham. Pengaruh financial distress, ukuran perusahaan, likuiditas, arus kas operasi, & laba akuntansi terhadap pengembalian saham ritel di IDX (2021-2023). Temukan arus kas operasi berdampak positif.

Abstract

In the investment world, stock returns are the leading indicator of a company’s performance and the basis for investor decision-making in the capital market. Fluctuations in stock returns reflect market expectations of the company’s prospects. The retail sector in Indonesia is facing significant pressure from post-pandemic shifts in consumer behavior and increased competition. This study aims to analyze the effect of financial distress, company size, liquidity, operating cash flow, and accounting profit on stock returns in retail sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2021 to 2023. This type of research is causally associated with a quantitative approach. The data used is secondary, in the form of financial statements from retail companies. The sampling technique used was purposive, yielding a total of 39 data points from 13 retail companies. Data testing was carried out using SPSS version 24. The results showed that partially, the variables of financial distress, company size, liquidity, and accounting profit had no significant effect on stock returns. Meanwhile, operating cash flow positively impacts stock returns. These findings indicate that fundamental indicators are not always the main determinants of stock returns. Therefore, investors are advised also to consider external factors such as market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and government policies that may have a greater influence on stock performance in the capital market.

Review

This paper, titled "Pengaruh Probabilitas Financial Distress, Ukuran Perusahaan, Likuiditas, Arus Kas Operasi, dan Laba Akuntansi terhadap Pengembalian Saham," addresses a highly relevant topic in financial markets: the determinants of stock returns. Focusing on the Indonesian retail sector, which has faced significant post-pandemic challenges, the study's objective to investigate the impact of various financial indicators on stock performance is timely and critical for investors and market analysts. The chosen independent variables—financial distress probability, company size, liquidity, operating cash flow, and accounting profit—represent a comprehensive set of fundamental metrics often considered vital in investment decision-making. The research adopts a causal associative quantitative approach, leveraging secondary financial statement data from retail sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2021-2023 period. A purposive sampling technique yielded a dataset of 39 observations from 13 companies, with analysis performed using SPSS version 24. The findings present a particularly interesting outcome: financial distress, company size, liquidity, and accounting profit were all found to have no significant partial effect on stock returns. Conversely, operating cash flow emerged as the sole variable with a statistically significant and positive impact, indicating its importance to market participants in this specific context. The study's conclusion, emphasizing that fundamental indicators are not always the main determinants and advising investors to consider external factors, is a crucial takeaway. However, the non-significance of several key financial variables warrants further discussion. While the suggestion to consider external factors like market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and government policies is valid, the paper could benefit from exploring theoretical reasons for the observed lack of impact from traditional fundamentals within the Indonesian retail context. Additionally, the relatively short study period (2021-2023) and the sample size (13 companies, 39 data points) might limit the generalizability of the findings and could be a factor in the detection of significant effects. Future research could expand the scope by including a longer time series and explicitly incorporating external macroeconomic and market sentiment variables into the model to provide a more holistic understanding.

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