Afriliyanti Afriliyanti, Ade Firmansyah

Pengaruh Harga Dan Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor Pada Produk Kopi Ke Amerika Serikat

Introduction

Pengaruh harga dan inflasi terhadap ekspor pada produk kopi ke amerika serikat. Analisis dampak harga & inflasi terhadap ekspor kopi Indonesia ke AS (2015-2023). Penelitian kuantitatif ini menemukan bahwa harga & inflasi berpengaruh negatif signifikan pada ekspor kopi.

Abstract

Coffee is one of Indonesia's main export commodities. The United States is the largest market for coffee exports. This study aims to analyze the effect of price and inflation on exports of coffee products to the United States. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The variables used in this study are price, inflation and exports. The data used is multiple linear regression analysis with time series data in 2015-2023. Secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the International Coffee Organization (ICO). The results showed that price has a negative and significant effect on exports of coffee products, while inflation also has the same effect, which is negative and significant. Recommendations for future research include analyzing other factors such as trade policies and climatic conditions that may affect Indonesian coffee exports.

Review

This study addresses a pertinent economic issue by analyzing the impact of price and inflation on Indonesian coffee exports to the United States, a critical market for one of Indonesia's main commodities. The research employs a quantitative approach using multiple linear regression on time series data from 2015-2023, aiming to provide insights into key macroeconomic determinants. The abstract clearly states the objective and presents a concise finding: both price and inflation were found to have a negative and significant effect on coffee exports. This initial exploration offers a valuable contribution to understanding the dynamics of a significant sector of Indonesia's export economy. However, several methodological and reporting aspects require significant scrutiny and elaboration. A primary concern is the limited sample size of only nine observations (2015-2023) for a multiple linear regression analysis. This small sample inherently restricts the statistical power, reliability of parameter estimates, and generalizability of the findings, raising questions about the robustness of the "negative and significant" effects reported. Furthermore, the abstract lacks specific definitions for key variables; "price" is ambiguous and needs clarification (e.g., export unit value, international commodity price, or domestic price). The presented results are minimal, lacking crucial details such as regression coefficients, standard errors, R-squared values, or diagnostic tests relevant for time series data, which are essential for a comprehensive evaluation of the model's fit and economic significance. To enhance the study's academic rigor and substantial contribution, thorough revisions are imperative. The authors must critically discuss the severe limitations imposed by the small sample size and consider whether the chosen methodology remains appropriate, or if alternative approaches for small samples or longer time series are feasible. A precise definition of the "price" variable is crucial for interpreting its impact accurately. Moreover, the full paper must present a complete set of regression results, including appropriate statistical diagnostics, to allow readers to fully assess the validity and magnitude of the reported effects. If these significant methodological and reporting issues are adequately addressed, the research holds the potential to offer valuable insights; otherwise, its current form presents substantial limitations to its reliability and contribution.

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