Febria Ramana

MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION PADA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA – TIONGKOK

Introduction

Marshall-lerner condition pada perdagangan indonesia – tiongkok. Kaji Marshall-Lerner Condition pada perdagangan Indonesia-Tiongkok. Depresiasi rupiah tak cukup perbaiki neraca dagang meski syarat terpenuhi. Perlu diversifikasi ekspor dan manajemen risiko yuan.

Abstract

Abstrak Satu dekade terakhir, neraca perdagangan Indonesia dengan partner dagang terbesarnya, Tiongkok, mengalami defisit yang makin meningkat. Salah satu opsi kebijakan yang banyak menjadi perhatian adalah kebijakan devaluasi atau depresiasi. Depresiasi dinilai dapat memberikan dampak baik bagi neraca perdagangan di negara berkembang, tetapi manfaat tersebut tidak berlaku untuk semua kasus. Beberapa literatur menyatakan suatu negara harus memenuhi prasyarat Marshall-Lerner Condition untuk menerima manfaat tersebut. BSCA dapat memengaruhi penggunaan rupiah dan yuan juga mendorong urgensi peninjauan ulang prasyarat tersebut pada perdagangan bilateral Indonesia dan Tiongkok. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi apakah Indonesia dapat menerima manfaat saat terjadinya depresiasi rupiah terhadap yuan dengan terpenuhinya Marshall-Lerner Condition. Penelitian ini menggunakan Impulse Response Function dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengidentifikasi kondisi tersebut. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa prasyarat Marshall-Lerner Condition terpenuhi, tetapi ternyata kondisi tersebut tidak cukup menjamin untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan ketika rupiah terdepresiasi. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah harus berhati-hati saat terdepresiasinya rupiah terhadap yuan. Pemerintah perlu memperbaiki struktur ekspor-impor dengan memperkuat diversifikasi produk dan kebijakan substitusi impor. Sementara itu, dalam jangka panjang, manajemen risiko yang lebih komprehensif terhadap volatilitas yuan perlu diperhatikan. Kata Kunci: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Defisit, Neraca Perdagangan, Kurs   Abstract In the last decade, Indonesia's trade balance with its largest trading partner, China, has experienced an increasing deficit. One of the policy alternatives that has received policymakers’ attention is currency devaluation or depreciation. Depreciation is considered to have a good impact on the trade balance for developing countries, but this benefit does not apply to all cases. Some literature state that a country must meet the Marshall-Lerner Condition to receive these benefits. BSCA will affect the use of the rupiah and the yuan, which lead to the urgency of reexamining this prerequisite for bilateral trade between Indonesia and China. This study aims to identify whether Indonesia can receive benefits when the rupiah depreciates against the yuan by fulfilling the Marshall-Lerner condition. This study uses the Impulse Response Function as a tool in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to identify the condition. The results estimate that the Marshall-Lerner Condition is fulfilled, but this condition is not enough to ensure trade balance improvement as the rupiah depreciates. Therefore, the government must be careful when the rupiah depreciates against the yuan. The government needs to improve the export-import structure by strengthening export product diversification and import substitution policies. Meanwhile, in the long term, more comprehensive risk management of yuan volatility needs to be considered. Keywords: Marshall-Lerner Condition, Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement, Deficit, Trade Balance, Exchange Rate JEL Classification: F13, F14, F31

Review

This paper addresses a highly pertinent issue concerning Indonesia's escalating trade deficit with its largest partner, China, and critically examines the efficacy of currency depreciation as a corrective policy. Employing the well-established theoretical framework of the Marshall-Lerner Condition (MLC), the study investigates whether Indonesia can realistically expect an improved trade balance following a depreciation of the rupiah against the yuan. The authors also highlight the contextual relevance of the Bilateral Swap Currency Arrangement (BSCA) in influencing the use of both currencies and the urgency of re-evaluating traditional prerequisites. Given the significant and persistent trade imbalance, the research question is timely and of considerable policy importance for Indonesia. Methodologically, the study utilizes the Impulse Response Function (IRF) within a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework, which is an appropriate approach for analyzing dynamic, cointegrated economic relationships between an exchange rate and the trade balance. The findings present a nuanced and crucial insight: while the Marshall-Lerner Condition is indeed found to be fulfilled for Indonesia-China trade, this fulfillment surprisingly does not suffice to guarantee an improvement in the trade balance when the rupiah depreciates. This counter-intuitive result challenges conventional expectations and underscores the complexity of bilateral trade dynamics that extend beyond simple elasticity conditions. The policy implications derived from these findings are significant and actionable. The paper strongly advises the Indonesian government to exercise caution regarding the expectation that rupiah depreciation alone will rectify the trade deficit. Instead, it advocates for a shift towards more fundamental structural reforms, specifically emphasizing the necessity of improving the export-import structure through enhanced product diversification for exports and robust import substitution policies. Furthermore, the study underscores the long-term importance of developing comprehensive risk management strategies to contend with yuan volatility. This research offers a valuable contribution by providing a data-driven, country-specific analysis that complicates a widely held policy assumption, thereby guiding policymakers toward more effective and sustainable trade balance strategies.

Full Text

Comments

You need to be logged in to post a comment.