Katarina Elofsson , Bahre Gebru, Hans Andersson

Impacts of climate change on agricultural yield and the economic feasibility of adaptation in Sweden

Introduction

Impacts of climate change on agricultural yield and the economic feasibility of adaptation in sweden. Explore climate change impacts on Swedish crop yields (wheat, oats, barley) and economic adaptation feasibility. Analyzes seasonal precipitation effects for tailored strategies.

Abstract

Climate change alters precipitation patterns and temperature. The impact thereof on agricultural yields varies across production seasons and crops. The purpose of this study is to examine the nonlinear effect of seasonal precipitation on the yields of winter wheat, spring wheat, oats, and spring barley using Swedish county-level data from 1979 to 2021. To this end, we use Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regressions with high-dimensional fixed effects. Results show that increased precipitation during the early growing season enhances crop yields except for spring barley. Increased precipitation in the second, main growing season negatively affects all crops, but the magnitude of the impact is small compared to that in the early growing season. The impacts are generally more beneficial in the southern part of the country. Irrigation of winter wheat in the spring could be profitable for farms that own irrigation equipment, but for spring crops this would only be the case under extremely dry conditions. Results point to the need for well-tailored climate adaptation strategies.

Review

This study addresses a critical and timely issue concerning the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields in Sweden, specifically focusing on the nonlinear effects of seasonal precipitation and the economic feasibility of adaptation strategies. Utilizing a comprehensive county-level dataset spanning from 1979 to 2021, the authors investigate the responses of key crops—winter wheat, spring wheat, oats, and spring barley—to varying precipitation patterns. The methodology employs robust Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regressions with high-dimensional fixed effects, a strength that suggests a rigorous approach to controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and potential confounding factors, thereby enhancing the reliability of the findings. The empirical results reveal nuanced and complex relationships between precipitation and crop yields. Critically, increased precipitation during the early growing season is shown to generally enhance crop yields, with spring barley being a notable exception. Conversely, higher precipitation during the main growing season negatively impacts all studied crops, although the magnitude of this detrimental effect is reported to be less pronounced than the benefits observed in the early season. Furthermore, the study identifies important regional disparities, indicating that the beneficial impacts of precipitation are more prevalent in southern Sweden. Regarding adaptation, the analysis provides valuable economic insights: irrigation for winter wheat in spring could be profitable for farms already possessing the necessary equipment, while for spring crops, irrigation's economic viability is largely limited to extremely dry conditions, underscoring the high cost and conditional profitability of such interventions. Overall, this research offers significant contributions to the understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation pathways within Swedish agriculture. By elucidating the crop-specific, seasonal, and regional heterogeneity of precipitation impacts and the conditional economic feasibility of irrigation, the study provides a strong empirical basis for developing targeted and effective climate adaptation strategies. The findings compellingly underscore the need for policies and practices that are finely tuned to local conditions, crop types, and seasonal variations, moving beyond a one-size-fits-all approach. This work will undoubtedly be of great interest and utility to agricultural policymakers, farmers, and researchers concerned with building climate resilience in Nordic agricultural systems.

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