Lap Yin Ryan Chan

Chinese Aggression in the Asia-Pacific: An Explanation for Variations in Policy

Introduction

Chinese aggression in the asia-pacific: an explanation for variations in policy . Explore variations in China's aggression in the Asia-Pacific. This analysis reveals how domestic political pressures, historical interactions, and nationalist sentiment shape Beijing's foreign policy.

Abstract

China’s growth into a global hegemon has been accompanied by an increase in aggression in its foreign policy towards other states in the Asia-Pacific region. Traditional realist explanations would point to China’s rising power as the explanation for Beijing’s increased aggression. However, these system-level arguments cannot explain the variation in China’s degree of aggression towards different actors in the Asia-Pacific. China is much more sensitive to domestic political pressures than realists imagine; it is more likely to pursue aggressive actions when its domestic population is hostile towards the target state and expects a strong stance. On the other hand, China is also more likely to exercise restrained aggression when its domestic population is sympathetic to the target state’s people. Through an analysis of 5 Conflict Dyads in the Asia-Pacific region, it becomes clear that domestic political pressures such as historical interactions and traditional values help to shape and constrain China’s aggressive actions in the Asia-Pacific. Negative historical interactions and a loss of self-prestige in relations would therefore lead to increased aggression from China in the Asia-Pacific to regain national pride and appease nationalist audiences.

Review

This paper tackles a highly pertinent and complex issue: the drivers of Chinese foreign policy, specifically its aggressive manifestations in the Asia-Pacific. By explicitly challenging the limitations of traditional realist explanations, which often attribute China's behavior solely to its rising power, the author proposes a more nuanced, domestic-level framework. The central argument posits that variations in China's aggressive stance towards different actors are significantly shaped by internal political pressures, including public sentiment, historical interactions, and traditional values. This promises a valuable contribution to the literature by moving beyond system-level determinism and offering a more granular understanding of Beijing's foreign policy calculus. While the premise is compelling, the abstract leaves several critical areas underspecified, which would require rigorous elaboration in the full manuscript. The characterization of China as a "global hegemon" requires immediate justification, as this designation is a significant theoretical claim that is debated and could be premature. Methodologically, the proposed analysis of "5 Conflict Dyads" lacks detail regarding their selection, the specific nature of the conflicts, and how "aggression" and "restrained aggression" are defined and measured across these cases. More importantly, the abstract needs to clarify how amorphous concepts like "domestic political pressures," "historical interactions," and "traditional values" are operationalized and empirically linked to policy outcomes. A key theoretical challenge will be to delineate the precise causal mechanisms: how do domestic sentiments translate into policy decisions, and is this always a reactive process, or does the state also actively shape public opinion to justify its actions? Further discussion on how this domestic explanation integrates with, or refutes, alternative explanations for *variation* in aggression would also strengthen the argument. In conclusion, this paper presents an intriguing and timely theoretical intervention that seeks to fill a significant explanatory gap in the study of Chinese foreign policy. Its emphasis on domestic factors offers a promising avenue for understanding the differential application of China's power in the Asia-Pacific, thereby enriching our understanding beyond traditional structural arguments. However, for the full potential of this research to be realized, the author must provide a much clearer and more detailed articulation of its theoretical framework, methodological approach, and the empirical measurement of its core variables. With comprehensive revisions addressing these points, this paper holds strong potential to make an important contribution to the field.

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