Widya Hary Cahyati, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Andi Irwan Benardi, Hanif Pandu Suhito, Izha Fajar Al Isynaini, Ratna Sri Indrawati

The Phenomenon of Dengue Fever in Climate Change

Introduction

The phenomenon of dengue fever in climate change. Study the link between climate factors (temperature, humidity, rainfall) and dengue fever cases in Semarang, Indonesia, impacting mosquito breeding & virus transmission.

Abstract

Dengue fever is a health challenge in tropical and subtropical countries. The increase in dengue cases in Indonesia is influented by urbanization, climate change, higher population mobility, and community behavior. This study aims to describe the climate factors, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed, as well as dengue fever cases. This study uses a descriptive observational design with an ecological study approach. The data collection technique used in this study was secondary data in the form of documentation studies by analyzing records of dengue fever case numbers and climate data. The average monthly temperature ranges from 26.8 to 31.3°C, the average monthly humidity ranges from 65.1 to 85.7%, and rainfall fluctuates significantly, with the highest intensity reaching 28.7 mm. Dengue fever cases show a fluctuating trend, with the highest number in 2023 at 541 cases. Climate factors play a role in the dynamics of dengue cases in Semarang City. Temperature and humidity are within the optimal range that supports mosquito breeding and dengue virus transmission. High rainfall allows for puddles of water to form, which serve as breeding grounds for mosquitoes. Low wind speeds also facilitate mosquito flight activity.

Review

This study tackles a highly relevant and timely public health issue: the intricate relationship between dengue fever and climate change, a significant challenge for tropical and subtropical regions. The authors clearly state their objective to describe key climate factors—temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed—in relation to dengue cases, utilizing a descriptive observational design with an ecological approach. The abstract provides valuable initial insights, detailing the observed ranges for temperature (26.8-31.3°C), humidity (65.1-85.7%), and rainfall, alongside a fluctuating trend in dengue cases in Semarang City, peaking in 2023. The conclusion that climate factors play a role in dengue dynamics, with optimal conditions supporting mosquito breeding and transmission, offers a foundational understanding of the local epidemiology. While the descriptive nature of the study is appropriate for a preliminary investigation, the abstract could benefit from clarifying how the "role" of climate factors was assessed beyond mere observation. The conclusion that "climate factors play a role in the dynamics of dengue cases" implies a level of association that is typically quantified through statistical analyses, such as correlation or regression, even within an ecological framework. The abstract highlights fluctuations in rainfall and dengue cases but does not explicitly state if such analyses were performed to establish the strength or direction of these relationships. Without this, the causal links suggested (e.g., high rainfall leading to puddles, low wind facilitating mosquito flight) remain inferential rather than empirically demonstrated within the presented findings. Additionally, an acknowledgement of the inherent limitations of an ecological study in drawing individual-level conclusions would strengthen the scientific rigor. To enhance the study's contribution and impact, future iterations or a more detailed presentation of the methodology should consider incorporating statistical analyses, such as time-series analysis or correlation studies, to quantify the relationship between climate variables and dengue incidence over time. Exploring potential lag effects between climate factors and dengue cases would also offer deeper insights. Furthermore, while the abstract briefly mentions other influential factors like urbanization and population mobility, a discussion on how these might interact with or confound the climate-dengue relationship would provide a more holistic understanding. Despite these recommendations, the study lays an important groundwork for understanding local dengue epidemiology and holds significant potential to inform public health interventions and the development of climate-sensitive early warning systems.

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