ida latifattul ummah, diyah ariyani

Faktor-faktor Penentu Untuk Mencapai Peningkatan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia

Introduction

Faktor-faktor penentu untuk mencapai peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia . Teliti faktor penentu pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia: Indeks Produksi Industri, inflasi, kurs, perdagangan internasional, dan PMA sebagai intervening. Analisis data 1983-2022.

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI), inflasi, kurs, dan perdagangan Internasional terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi ndonesia dengan Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) sebagai variabel intervening. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder yang diambil dari website world bank. Data yang digunakan data time series dari tahun 1983-2022. Data yang diperoleh diolah dengan alat analisis Eviews 10. Uji yang digunakan untuk menguji hipotesis dengan uji stasioner, uji regresi, uji asumsi klasik dan uji path analysis. Berdasarkan hasil uji t menunjukkan hasil bahwa Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI) berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, kurs berpengaruh negatif tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, perdagangan internasional berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI) berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), inflasi berpengaruh positif tidak signifikan terhadap Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), kurs berpengaruh positif tidak signifikan terhadap Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), perdagangan internasional berpengaruh negatif tidak signifikan terhadap Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI) berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), dan variabel inflasi, kurs, dan perdagangan internasional tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA).

Review

This study critically examines the determinants of economic growth in Indonesia, focusing on the influence of the Industrial Production Index (IPI), inflation, exchange rates, and international trade, with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) serving as an intervening variable. The research adopts a robust quantitative approach, utilizing time-series data from 1983 to 2022 sourced from the World Bank. The application of econometric tools via Eviews 10, including stationarity, regression, classical assumption tests, and path analysis, indicates a methodologically sound framework designed to uncover complex relationships crucial for understanding Indonesia's economic trajectory. The topic is highly relevant, offering insights into key drivers for policymakers and economic stakeholders. The findings present a nuanced and, in some instances, surprising set of relationships. The Industrial Production Index (IPI) emerges as a significant positive driver of economic growth, both directly and indirectly through its positive influence on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Intriguingly, inflation is also found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, a result that warrants careful interpretation within the Indonesian context. In contrast, international trade shows a significant negative impact on economic growth, while the exchange rate's effect on growth is negative but not statistically significant. When considering FDI as an intervening variable, only the positive impact of IPI on economic growth is mediated through FDI, suggesting that other factors like inflation, exchange rates, and international trade do not leverage this channel to affect overall economic expansion. While the abstract clearly outlines the findings, the full paper would benefit from a more thorough economic rationale and theoretical discussion, particularly concerning the positive relationship between inflation and economic growth, and the negative association of international trade with economic growth. These findings are critical and necessitate a deep dive into specific Indonesian economic mechanisms or contextual factors that might explain such outcomes. Furthermore, the policy implications derived from the identified significant drivers, especially relating to industrial production and foreign direct investment, should be extensively elaborated to provide actionable recommendations. Addressing potential limitations and outlining directions for future research would further enhance the paper's contribution to the existing literature on Indonesian economic development.

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